Multistate Modelling for the Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in the North-eastern Region of Nigeria

Abstract

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) presents a growing healthcare challenge worldwide, with Nigeria experiencing a rising burden of this condition. In the context of Nigeria, the North-eastern region stands as a unique and understudied landscape, marked by its complex socio-demographic, healthcare, and environmental factors. The primary aim of this research is to comprehensively characterize CKD progression, identify region-specific risk factors, and develop models tailored to the North-eastern context. This research endeavours to address the knowledge gap surrounding CKD progression in the North-eastern region through the application of Multistate Modelling techniques.  The study involve extensive data collection from CKD patients in the North-eastern region, including clinical, demographic, and follow-up data. We examined the progression of renal disease in 193 individuals' data. The median hospital stay was 12 days. Age, gender, hypertension, and diabetes are key prognostic variables influencing the progress of CKD at various stages. The study's findings will help public health authorities establish policies and treatment approaches to increase patient survival. Furthermore, predicting illness development aids in assessing the disease's projected burden.