Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on how vector-borne diseases such as malaria spread.  In this research, we build mathematical model to understand malaria dynamics in Nigeria under the influence of climate change that accounts for seasonal fluctuations in rainfall and temperature through combining human and mosquito populations. The model expands upon the traditional SIR Model.  Rainfall is expected to peak between April and October, exhibiting typical seasonal patterns in the country, and is used to modulate vector population dynamics and breeding intensity. Numerical simulation is perform and the results obtained show different seasonal fluctuations across both human and vector populations, with maximum transmission periods matching with the rainy season.

Keywords: Climate Change, Malaria Transmission, Vector-borne Diseases, Seasonal Fluctuations, Mathematical Model